Ahead of the UK Budget on 26 November, Mentera’s Chief Executive Llŷr Roberts gives his perspective on what he would like to see and the impact some possible changes could have on Welsh business. 

In my 20 years in business, I can’t remember a more hotly anticipated UK Autumn Budget. The stakes are high and speculation is frenetic. And while I’m not interested in the political game-playing (as entertaining as that may be), I’m very concerned about what will or won’t be announced and the impact that could have on businesses in Wales.

In my role as chief executive of Mentera, a not-for-profit business development company operating in Wales for 36 years, I see the day-to-day challenges and opportunities facing SMEs throughout Wales - and I also have to manage those same challenges in Mentera.

These are some of the themes I’m hoping to see in the Budget, that could make a real difference to economic growth in Wales over the coming months.

A long-term vision for economic growth and stability

Welsh business is calling for a clear, stable, and long-term economic vision from the Budget. In her efforts to tackle the national fiscal gap, the Chancellor mustn't undermine business confidence and she can’t further increase costs for businesses either. Businesses need certainty; the focus must be on achieving fiscal stability without triggering policy churn that causes firms to postpone investment further. 

To truly drive investment, the Budget must stimulate growth (through, for example, infrastructure and capital investment) and support a competitive and proportionate regulatory and tax environment. This includes things like business rates reform; and avoiding new taxes on businesses.

Invest in Future Skills and Talent

Addressing current skills shortages is a critical priority, demanding a cohesive approach across governments.

Welsh businesses are reliant on the apprenticeship system to develop skills for future industries. Without sufficient investment in skills development, we risk creating a lost generation and directly impacting anchor companies that base investment decisions on talent availability.

The Budget should invest in entrepreneurship from early years onwards, backed by clear, long-term funding certainty.

Create the Right Foundation for Growth

Accelerated and decisive investment is required in essential and resilient infrastructure - digital, transport, and energy - to connect Welsh businesses and communities.

The need to speed up planning and ensure the delivery of key infrastructure projects is paramount. Cuts to public capital spending to balance the national books would directly contradict the business requirement to accelerate delivery and build the foundations for growth.

Speculation regarding new taxes, such as a road use charge for Electric Vehicles (EVs), must be carefully considered. Such a tax could disincentivise the adoption of clean technology, hindering Wales's push to be a global player in the just transition to Net Zero.

Ensure equitable growth in all parts of Wales

The Budget must contain specific measures to close the productivity gap and tackle regional inequalities. Confirmed funding commitments for the Port Talbot/Tata Steel Transition Board and continued support for City and Growth Deals are essential steps in tackling regional disparities and securing the manufacturing base.

Any speculated UK-wide changes to taxes on property transactions, like Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT), would have knock-on effects for the Welsh housing market and Land Transaction Tax (LTT). Stability is needed to support the delivery of new homes and prevent uncertainty from slowing transactions, which is crucial for labour mobility and economic health across different parts of Wales.

This budget must see a commitment to delivery, focusing on stability, skills and infrastructure to finally unlock Wales’s full economic potential.